Odds Shorten On Fianna Fáil Election Victory

19 Jan 2020 | 07.50 pm

Odds Shorten On Fianna Fáil Election Victory

Bookies expect 14-seat gap between FF and FG

19 Jan 2020 | 07.50 pm

The odds on Fianna Fáil leader Micheal Martin becoming the next Taoiseach have shortened at the end of the first week of the general election campaign.

Ahead of the election being called, Fine Gael had 47 seats, Fianna Fáil 45, Sinn Fein 22, Independents 22, Labour 7, Solidarity PBP 6, and the Green Party 3. There are 160 Dáil seats to be filled in the election, two more than in 2016.

When the election was called on Jan.14, Paddy Power made Fianna Fáil favourite to win most seats at 8/11, with Fine Gael on evens. The most-seats odd have shortened to 2/9 for FF, while the Fine Gael most-seats odds have drifted to 11/4.

Earlier in the week the bookies had Martin (pictured) favourite to be the next Taoiseach, at 4/6. Those odds have tightened to 1/5, with Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar on the drift at 3/1, out from 11/10 at the start of the campaign.

In terms of the number of seats for each party, Paddy Power’s opening betting line was that Fianna Fáil would have a one seat advantage over Fine Gael when the votes are counted. That gap expectation has now widened to 14 seats.

Paddy Power’s latest number of seats betting line is Fianna Fáil 56.5, Fine Gael 42.5, Sinn Féin 17.5, Labour 8.5, and the Greens 9.5.

The first opinion poll of the election campaign indicates that Fianna Fáil has a 12-point lead on Fine Gael. The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll gives Fianna Fáil 32%, with Fine Gael on 20%, down seven points from the paper’s previous poll.

The poll of 923 voters was largely conducted before the Dáil was dissolved at the time when controversy erupted over a planned commemoration of the Royal Irish Constabulary.

The Sunday Times poll on voting intentions gives Sinn 19%, Green Party 7% and Labour 4%.

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