Flat Forecast For 2019 Ad Spend

14 Mar 2019 | 02.16 pm

Flat Forecast For 2019 Ad Spend

Projections from media buyer Core

14 Mar 2019 | 02.16 pm

Advertising spend in Ireland will increase by less than one per cent this year, according to the Outlook 2019 report from media buyer Core.

The marketing communications company is forecasting that total media spend in Ireland will grow by just 0.6% in 2019, to €1,044 million, with online media delivering the increase and offline media continuing to decline.

Print ad spend is forecast to decline by 11.1%, radio by 5.5%, television revenue by 2.9%.  Out-Of-Home is predicted to increase by 1.8% and cinema advertising is expected to grow by 0.6%. 

Core predicts that online spend will increase by 6.3% to €520m, with online video spend increasing by 24%. Facebook and YouTube will secure as much as two-thirds of the additional online video spend this year, the company says.

A hard Brexit is not factored into Core’s predictions. If the UK does crash out of Europe, the impact on marketing budgets both here and in the UK will be significant.

While commentary from the UK suggests that a hard Brexit could result in a 5% decline in advertising investment there, the Republic of Ireland market is even more exposed, says the report.

Brexit Impact

Approximately 25% of advertising spend in Ireland is allocated from the UK in sterling. Economists believe that a hard Brexit will result in sterling falling in value by a further 10%, which when combined with weaker sentiment in the Republic would see investment levels contract by as much as 9% in Ireland.

In the case of Northern Ireland, a hard Brexit would result in a smaller decline, about 4%, due to anticipated increases in government spending on information campaigns specific to that region. Government spend remains a significant category in Northern Ireland. Offline media would bear the brunt of the decline in each market.

The Core report points to the problem of varying estimates of the value of the media market in Ireland, and the company is calling for an integrated approach by the industry to create an accurate picture which all can use.  Core suggests that the Institute of Advertising Practitioners in Ireland should  manage such a project.

Chief executive Alan Cox (pictured) commented: “In 2019, we still rely on conjecture to estimate the value of the media market in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. This approach results in very different figures being quoted across the market. This needs to stop; we must agree an industry-wide approach that reports real, approved numbers.

“We are not suggesting that the advertising revenue of each individual media owner be published – that is unnecessary; but what is necessary is an accurate breakdown of total spend by medium.

“An independent third party such as an accountancy firm could facilitate this, while protecting the confidentiality of company-level information. A similar process is already in place for TV.”

Cox would also like the government to commission an independent report to examine the state of the news media in Ireland.

Cox added: “There is a strong, positive link between media consumption and national belonging. Other countries are taking this matter seriously. For example, the recent Cairncross review into the sustainability of high-quality journalism in the UK  made several recommendations to create a better balance between publishers and platforms, and to persuade the online platforms to use their position in more accountable ways. The Irish government should follow the UK’s example and conduct a similar review here.”

The full Outlook 2019 report is available here.

 

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